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Looking back 18 months.
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
This post outlines the rules of /Cindicator and provides answers to the most common questions. We'd like to ask the community to participate in FAQs suggestions (you can add your comments below). Also check sidebar for links to our Medium, Facebook, Twitter, Telegram etc. DISCLAIMER We can’t sell our tokens to U.S. and China citizens and residents: U.S. citizens or permanent residents of the US, or those who have a primary residence or domicile in the United States, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and any other possessions of the United States can not be holders of our tokens (CND). We also can’t sell our tokens to citizens and permanent residents of China. Rules for the app We at Cindicator also won’t tolerate scams or cheating. If you try to cheat using our application (for example - register multiple accounts and send the same forecasts) - we will have to ban you. Rules for this subreddit
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In case of any questions, please contact us at [email protected]. FAQ What is Cindicator? Cindicator is a fintech company that creates the social and technological infrastructure needed to make effective decisions under volatile conditions of the new economy. By combining a large number of diverse financial analysts and a set of machine-learning models into a single system, we are developing a Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure for the efficient management of investors' capital in traditional financial and crypto-markets. How does it work?
Cindicator creates questions on Crowd Intelligence platform - app.cindicator.com
Analysts make their prediction on the daily basis, answering a number of specific questions about price levels of different financial assets, macroeconomic indexes, events significantly influencing the market, future ICOs.
Right after the question closes (deadline), the artificial intelligence system synthesises accurate forecasts using machine learning algorithms based on the accumulated statistics predicted by forecasters. Machine learning models dynamically calculate various weights for each analyst, identify stable systematics in their errors and calculate corrections for the errors, eliminate noise, and generate final predictions and trading indicators.
What does Cindicator stand for? Crowd Indicator: we refer to the famous “Wisdom of the crowds” concept. In a nutshell: it means that group of people is more likely to provide right answer than an individual. Hence, crowd indicator - an indicator of collective intelligence. Are there any Cindicator products already completed? Yes, there are several products that already completed and ready to use. They include: Collective Intelligence platform - applications for Android, iOS, web platform, CindicatorBot - Analytical Indicators, Cryptometer (arbitrage) bot, Token Sale Review bot, other different products are in development. What is Crowd Intelligence platform? Crowd Intelligence platform is a platform that we launched in December 2015 and where over 115,000 of analysts generate various forecasts daily, answering a number of specific questions, for example: Shares of Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) fell 5.87% and closed at 30.81 USD on Thursday, September 6 a day after testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Will Twitter stock manage to recover and trade above 32.7 USD by September 27? The cryptocurrency Bitcoin settled at $6753.3 at 10:30 AM UTC at Bitfinex exchange on Sunday, September 23. What will be the maximum and the minimum price of BTC/USD from 12:01 AM UTC on Monday, September 24 until 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, September 30? Apple Inc. (AAPL) is scheduled to reveal its Q4 earnings on Thursday, November 1 after the market close. In your opinion, will Apple Inc. report earnings per share (EPS) above current Wall Street consensus of $2.77? Bitcoin crypto market share settled at 54.46% at 07:30 AM UTC on Monday, October 15. In your opinion, will Bitcoin's market share climb above 57.2% (+5%) at any time before November 14? And much more - visit the app to check all questions! What is Cindicator Bot? If we were asked to describe the product in one sentence, we would say: Cindicator combines the data from our analysts’ forecasts, processes it through several layers of ML algorithms, and delivers notifications with indicators via Telegram bot. For now we’re offering Cindicator’s users 9 types of indicators, most of them tackling both crypto- and traditional financial markets analysis. You can find levels of access and description of indicators on website and in this post. We’ve been carrying out back and forward testing of the indicators for quite some time already - you can find this information here https://goo.gl/aYf6ph. What is Cryptometer bot? The Cryptometer Bot 2.0 measures prices across multiple exchanges to anticipate and detect early signs of cryptocurrency market volatility and provides you with real-time price movements on your selected crypto assets. It is helping traders find the right arbitrage opportunity and profit in everyday trading in a simple way. You can find more information about this bot on website and this post. What is Token Sale Review bot? Token Sale Review is an exclusive analytical product that helps you identify the token sales that are the most sustainable and the most promising in the long run. A stop list tracks scams and projects with excessive risks. Access to this product is strictly limited and by application only. You can find more information about this bot on website and this post. Bots guide:https://cindicator.com/Cindicator-bot-reg-manual.pdf Video guides:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhGvusYMn3Hcq0WjlhJOTsxqIJcX3qG1e Levels of access Cindicator Bot Beginner - 5k CND Explorer - 30k CND Trader - 200k CND Expert - 700k CND Cryptometer bot - 1 million CND Token Sale Review bot Beginner - 8k CND/month Intermediate - 14k CND/month Advanced - 20k CND/month What is the problem Cindicator is solving? The main problem in current financial analytics is centralisation. This is because analysts cluster their forecasts and opinions in open access and these opinions impact upon the opinions of other analysts. Decentralization is one of the many necessary characteristics we are working on in the context of the wisdom of the crowd. Figuratively speaking, the suggestion of each unique person contains two types of information: useful signal and unique chaotic noise. Cindicator cuts through this centralization bias by aggregating opinion from a wide range of diverse forecasters from different countries with different professional backgrounds, with different personal experience. After we combine lots of such different suggestions, we have useful signal amplification, and noises mutually cancel each other as they are quite unique and random. When people don’t discuss the problem before making a suggestion they are unlikely to include alien biases into suggestions and keep the uniqueness of their subjectivity – their personal noise, so the sum of noises will go to zero and the signal becomes accurate. Why does Cindicator need the issuance of our own infrastructure tokens? The issuance of our own infrastructure tokens is conditioned by the need to create an internal economy in the ecosystem that will establish transparent and fair relations among all participants making up the system: forecasters/analysts, traders, financial investors, data scientists, and the Cindicator team. What the name of the token? Can I mine Cindicator tokens? The token is also called Cindicator (CND). Unlike proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin, there is no mining in Cindicator. What are Cindicator tokens? Cindicator tokens are ERC-20 compatible tokens distributed on the Ethereum blockchain pursuant to a related ERC-20 smart contract (the “CND Tokens”). Why people from PRC and USA are not allowed to buy Cindicator tokens? Due to legal reasons we can’t sell our tokens to U.S. and China citizens and residents: U.S. citizens or permanent residents of the US, or those who have a primary residence or domicile in the United States, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and any other possessions of the United States can not be holders of our tokens (CND). We also can’t sell our tokens to citizens and permanent residents of China. If your indicators are so valuable, why wouldn’t you use them only for yourself for trading? The answer is that simple: we are a technological company and specialise in the Hybrid Intelligence technologies. We create infrastructure and products based on it, and those products, infrastructure and data they yield can be used by hedge-funds or other companies with financial expertise. This way it’s a mutually beneficial business. We don't want to try entering completely different field of the big finance. In other words, the same question can be addressed to the Bloomberg, for example. To be exactly accurate - we do use our indicators for our own good - but this is a very small part of Cindicator business model. Which products can I access as a Token holder? By buying tokens, CND token holders will get exclusive access to part of the Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure being developed. Holders of CND infrastructure tokens will receive a different level of access to Cindicator’s indicators, ratings, and internal analytical products. Token holders will be able to access the following parts of the infrastructure: indicators of traditional markets and crypto-markets (the probability of the rise or fall of asset prices, the probability of beating consensus in corporate and macroeconomic events, indicators certain price levels being reached, indicators of the probability of significant events influencing the market); auxiliary service products for trading (Telegram bots, notifiers, and portfolio monitoring products); analytical products (ICO ratings, market condition analysis, ICO due diligence, and investor portfolio analysis); market indices and sentiments generated by Hybrid Intelligence (in development). Will your indicators still provide value if many people can gain access to them? The fact that token holders can use data from the analytical infrastructure products will not affect the value of the data received from Hybrid Intelligence, since each indicator or index is not an unambiguous trading signal, but only an additional metric in the market that helps analyse an investment decision. These data and analytical products will assist token holders and make the ecosystem transparent. A part of the infrastructure intended to be directly used in capital management (by traders' teams, machine-learning models, and trading strategies) will remain in the centralized part of the system. This is necessary in order to make sure that Hybrid Intelligence can be used most efficiently on the next stage, when interested funds will be provided with access to the entire infrastructure (for more detailed information, please, see White Paper Section 4.6). Cindicator - just another Prediction Market? Cindicator is not a prediction market. We are different in infrastructure, goals and business model: We enhance collective intelligence of our forecasters with Artificial Intelligence. Prediction markets usually just gather opinions. We aim at creating Hybrid intelligence - an effective combination of human mind and machine intelligence. Prediction markets aim at making correct predictions. We create products for financial markets: not only forecasts and signals, but also strategies, indices, sentiments, trading bots and tools, SaaS products. Thus our clients and source of income are financial markets’ players. Prediction markets focus on predictions - and for many of them analytics are important part of cash inflow. We on the other hand have never made or plan to make our forecasters risk their own money. You can read this article to know more about comparison of collective intelligence platforms. Is Cindicator just another trading signal provider? No, Cindicator is a technological ecosystem that also creates a number of products for traders and hedge funds. Cindicator’s ultimate goal is to set up a decentralized intellectual technology that effectively implements the potential of Hybrid Intelligence for the benefit of all participants of the ecosystem. In the future the technology strives to be fully automated: the only resource necessary for it to function will be the mental investment by the analysts. Is the crowd able to give reliable predictions? Usually we don’t expect crowd to be wise. However, crowd doesn’t necessarily mean chaotic and impulsive mass. In case of Cindicator, “the crowd” consists of independent financial analysts from all corners of the Earth. We could call it a consensus - yet the word we use refers to a well-known concept called “Wisdom of the crowds”. A famous example: in 1906, British scientist Francis Galton came to a rural fair where visitors were invited to guess the weight of a bull put on public display and to write this figure on a special ticket just for entertainment. Organizers of that show promised prizes for those who managed to guess a true figure. Thus, about 800 people - some of them professional farmers, others far from pastoral matters - took part in the voting. After collecting all the tickets for analysis after the fair, Galton calculated the average arithmetic value from the entire sample: 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the bull was 1198 pounds. Astonishing result, isn’t it? In order to make “Wisdom of the crowds” work, a few things must be secured: Analytics must look at the situation independently and provide answer privately - because otherwise they risk to become influenced by some opinion and produce biased results Group of people must be large. The more people - the more accurate their consensus is. Questions must be formulated in quantitative way. Watch a 5-mins video where BBC's professor Marcus du Sautoy explains how a group of people know more than one individual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU Have you acquired investments already? Cindicator has already acquired around $570,000 of investments from angels and venture funds. We also got $140,000 worth grants for technologies from Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon. During Cindicator Token Sale $15,000,000 hardcap has been reached. How experienced your team is? The Cindicator team has been created by a synergy of like-minded people with a variety of expertise in maths, data science and finances working together with one collective mind. About 85% of the team members are graduates of top STEM universities. We understand the value of building the right Team, Community, and Ecosystem. We are actively expanding the scientific community around our infrastructure, business and ecosystem giving access to our work and technologies so we can act together to solve important and relevant problems. Cindicator have a strong advisory board: Charlie Shrem - Chief Operating Officer at Jaxx.io, Founder of Bitcoin Foundation Anthony Diiorio - CEO and Founder at Decentral and Jaxx, Founder at Ethereum Markus Killick - CEO ISOLAS LLP law firm, Chairman Gibraltar Stock Exchange Evan Cheng - Director of Engineering at Facebook Reese Jones - Associate Founder at Singularity University Etienne Brunet - Investment Executive at Illuminate Financial Simone Giacomelli - Founder at Vulpem Stepan Gershuni - General partner at bits.capital Anton Govor - Managing Director, Head of Strategy at Moscow Exchange Andrei Rusakov - Partner, co-founder at Data Capital Management Julian Zegelman - Corporate Attorney, Partner at Velton, Zegelman PC Roman Storm - Blockchain and Solidity developer at blockchainlabs.nz Konstantin Gladych - CEO and Co-founder at Changelly.com instant cryptocurrency exchange Vivian Cheng - Associate at Cota Capital Boris Ryabov - Managing partner at Bright Capital
The innovative approach of HOQU to combatting fraud and shaving in CPA marketing
[OC] The problem of fraud in the CPA(cost per action) marketing model, namely the problem of fraud and shaving practices, is always present to some extent. Overpayment or, on the contrary, underpayment to network participants sometimes can reach up to 30–50%, and, in some cases, may even exceed those figures. Because of this, many advertisers avoid promotion on the CPA model, which, to some extent, is an option, since it allows exclusion of fraud. However, by refraining from “gray” traffic, the advertiser loses qualitative advantages, as in comparison with other types of marketing, the CPA approach outperforms many outdated models.
The problem of fraud
Fraud consists of the use of applications created by unscrupulous users involved on CPA networks. Partners can visit sites themselves and place orders. They can also use “gray” schemes to obtain personal client data and transmit it to the advertiser as self-attracted customers. Another popular method in case of paid call schemes is making use of in-house staff to make calls, imitating new clients. Fraudsters are the primary problem of advertisers. Because of fraudulent traffic, they incur significant losses, which, incidentally, applies to partner networks, especially if it is a self-respecting network that, if found fraudulent, returns to the advertiser the balance paid to the fraudulent partner. On the part of partner networks, fraud is also possible. It can be an indication to advertisers of an excessive number of leads or the inconspicuous write-off of money from the accounts of advertisers. The problem of fraud, in fact, is very voluminous. According to a study conducted by AppLif and Forensiq, specializing in mobile development, up to 34% of mobile device advertisement displays are suspicious. Of these, 22% were estimated as fraud. According to the statement of the marketing company Videology, the use of unscrupulous bots by publishers to simulate client actions brought damage in the years 2015 and 2016 in the amount of $6.3 and $7.3 billion, respectively. Artificially generated machine traffic is a significant problem for the industry. The Incapsula content delivery network recorded that 51.8% of transitions to sites on the network were made by robots. Fraudulent orders are detected in the following ways. The simplest and, at the same time, most highly effective way is repeated calling, during which the majority of false clients either do not answer or confuse personal data upon answering. Also, different sorts of scoring scripts work quite effectively. Coincidental telephone numbers, IP addresses, information about the devices of clients, all can be traced and analyzed. Also, it is necessary to cross check information with a unified client database, which stores data on clients who do not purchase orders. The withholding mechanism works effectively — the suspension of payment of remuneration to new, unverified webmasters, until the relevance of the leads given to them is confirmed, but it is extremely frustrating for the advertisers themselves. Of course, a full list of all the means available for detecting fraudulent activities is not published, as the fraudulent practitioners themselves would be the primary analysts of such information. Thus, a number of antifraud measures should remain secret.
Shaving in CPA Marketing
Each webmaster, in turn, speculates if their commission is paid in full and how accurate the statistics on their orders, which they can see, truly are. Cheating on the part of the network is called shaving, from the English term “to shave”, and, with respect to arbitrage, it means reducing the statistics of the webmaster’s part of the leads or traffic. This phenomenon can reduce up to 30% of the conversions belonging to the webmaster. Shaving on the advertisers’ part in relation to partners works in the following manners. Informing the partner that the order was not delivered, hence refusing to pay the commission from the purchase of the client. Not picking up the phone, when a customer calls, then determining the number of the client and calling. Modifying the partner network code on a proprietary website so not all of the leads are considered by the system. On the part of partner networks, the shave is possible by paying off incorrect amounts to the partner for client actions, showing partners underestimated information on leads, or inconspicuous write-offs of funds from partners’ accounts. It is practically impossible for partners to combat shaving on networks. To prove fraudulent actions, it is necessary to demonstrate statistics. As the statistics are displayed by the network itself, there is nothing to compare it with. Therefore, there is little alternative but to leave the unscrupulous network. Oftentimes, the shave is carried out by a ban of the webmaster under the pretext that it was engaged in fraud, with the appropriation of all the funds earned. It would seem that the situation resembles a vicious cycle. However, there is a way out. The above-mentioned problems of the advertising industry, the cause of which is the imperfection of classical advertising models and payment methods, make the issue of interaction of its participants the most urgent. Above all else, the issue of trust among all participants rises most prominently. To reduce the share of low-quality traffic, the advertising industry should evolve according to the model of performance marketing, whose best manifestation today is affiliate marketing. By working on this model, the partners are interested in increasing sales and client leads and they do not have any sense in attracting irrelevant traffic. At this point, we approach the crucial issue of the article at hand, because the technology in question allows, in principle, to eliminate advertisement fraud in the CPA model.
HOQU expands ideas on cooperation in the advertising field
The HOQU platform, built on the principles of performance marketing and on the basis of blockchain technology, brings partner marketing to a qualitatively new level. The very design of the technology of blockchain and smart contracts makes it possible to integrate into the network automatic control over the “cleanliness” of the actions of its participants with the help of a system of evaluating the reputation they earn there. The world’s first decentralized marketing platform — HOQU, allows advertisers and partners to work directly, without intermediaries, guaranteeing fair deals on the CPA model using a smart contract. In a smart contract, the conditions for an honest transaction between the advertiser and the partner are laid out plainly, thus the possibility of fraud on both sides is excluded, and payment under the contract is guaranteed.
Anti-fraud system HOQU
Of course, the contract itself cannot physically conduct audit of fraud. Fraud is excluded only due to a single ecosystem, where punishment is provided for any fraudulent activity. Considering that work with most off-sites on the platform is possible only for webmasters with a high level of identification (KYC) and a positive reputation, it is simply unprofitable for webmasters to engage in fraud. Antifraud protection on the HOQU platform will work as follows. As mentioned, each participant has a reputation in the system, the decentralized accounting of which will be carried out automatically. The reputation will be kept on the blockchain, tied directly to the identified entity. Advertisers will work with partners based on filters that, by default, will not allow cooperation with partners whose reputation is lower than the declared level. Each partner will have account statuses from Tier-1 to Tier-3, where Tier-1 is a registered user, and Tier-3 is a fully verified account that has been fully authenticated with a passport photo, an uploaded a statement bill, an address and other data. Accordingly, any attempt at fraud, identified by one of the many methods developed on the platform, will reduce the reputation of the user, as a result of which the latter will lose the opportunity to work. In the real world, a person with a criminal record has extremely low chances of finding decent employment, and with repeated conviction this probability is practically reduced to zero. The same applies to advertisers caught in the deception of webmasters. As soon as the fact becomes known, this advertiser is no longer of interest to partners because of their low reputation. Reputation on the platform will not be an ordinary scalar value. It will be a complex structure, including various indicators, including those taking into account the experience of the webmaster. Thanks to the technology of the blockchain, the system knows its history for the full duration of cooperation. In addition, warnings and a red flag are possible when the webmaster’s leads can already be audited not only by the advertiser and the network with which the webmaster is working, but also by any appellation center. That is, the system itself ensures the regulation of fraud issues in HOQU. In this case, the identification of shaving by the CPA networks will become a matter not only possible, but also quite simple as statistics will be recorded and stored on the blockchain, where information cannot be altered or faked. Also the platform will have built-in, modern anti-fraud tools, including many solutions for standard leads. Applications will be equipped with automatic and semi-automatic anti-fraud modules, and the Marketcall system, another HOQU team proprietary development system, will be used for calls, the first partner network with pay-per call. In case of conflict situations, when the advertiser and partner accuse each other or cannot reach consensus, the HOQU platform provides for an independent appellate center, where the parties can appeal their issues. Anyone can organize such a center in the framework of the platform, but the registration of such centers on the platform is possible by direct choice of the founders, or by voting of the authoritative platform participants. Thus, HOQU offers an elegant solution to the main problem of modern marketing, simply making fraud and shaving unnecessary and redundant in a system built on the principles of a fair, decentralized peering market. HOQU is the world’s first decentralized, blockchain-based marketing platform, which allows merchants and affiliates to interact directly, without brokers and ensures smart contract based CPA deals. More information about HOQU on official website: http://www.hoqu.io/ The Pre-sale of HOQU is to be conducted on the 13th of November, 2017, which will include an initial investment 40% Bonus. The HOQU token sale is to conducted from the 27th of November to the 26th of December, 2017. HOQU is the world’s first decentralized blockchain affiliate marketing platform. Social channels: Facebook: www.facebook.com/HOQUio Twitter: https://twitter.com/HOQU_IO Telegram: https://t.me/hoquio Telegram (Rus): https://t.me/hoqu_rus HOQU Blockchain AffiliateMarketing DigitalMarketing Crypto CryptoCurrency ETH BTC Ethereum Bitcoin Platform
FRESH UPDATE FROM AUGUST 24TH What is Cindicator? Cindicator is a fintech company that creates the social and technological infrastructure needed to make effective decisions under volatile conditions of the new economy. By combining a large number of diverse financial analysts and a set of machine-learning models into a single system, we are developing a Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure for the efficient management of investors' capital in traditional financial and crypto-markets. How does it work? 1. Cindicator creates questions in the mobile app. 2. Forecasters make their prediction on the daily basis, answering a number of specific questions about price levels of different financial assets, macroeconomic indexes, and events significantly influencing the market. 3. Right after the question closed (deadline), the artificial intelligence system synthesizes accurate forecasts using machine learning algorithms based on the accumulated statistics predicted by forecasters. Machine learning models dynamically calculate various weights for each forecaster, identify stable systematics in their errors and calculate corrections for the errors, eliminate noise, and generate final predictions and trading signals. Are there any Cindicator products already completed? Yes, there are several products that already completed and ready to use. They include: collective intelligence platform (Cindicator app for Android, iOS), trading signals, API for hedge funds price-related signals, probabilistic signals, and arbitrage bots. What is Cindicator app? Cindicator app is the mobile platform that we launched in December 2015 and where thousands of analysts generate various forecasts daily, answering a number of specific questions, for example: Create a forecast of the minimum and maximum price levels of Bitcoin for the upcoming seven days. Will the Tesla stock price surge to $345 during the market hours on Friday? Will the U.S. unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 4.5%, according to the June 2 report? Will Bancor collect more than $100M during the first week of ICO? What is the probability of Trump’s impeachment during the following three months? What is the problem Cindicator is solving? The main problem in current financial analytics is centralisation. This is because analysts cluster their forecasts and opinions in open access and these opinions impact upon the opinions of other analysts. Decentralization is one of the many necessary characteristics we are working on in the context of the wisdom of the crowd. Figuratively speaking, the suggestion of each unique person contains two types of information: useful signal and unique chaotic noise. Cindicator cuts through this centralization bias by aggregating opinion from a wide range of diverse forecasters from different countries with different professional backgrounds, with different personal experience. After we combine lots of such different suggestions, we have useful signal amplification, and noises mutually cancel each other as they are quite unique and random. When people don’t discuss the problem before making a suggestion they are unlikely to include alien biases into suggestions and keep the uniqueness of their subjectivity – their personal noise, so the sum of noises will go to zero and the signal becomes accurate. Why does Cindicator need the issuance of our own infrastructure tokens? The issuance of our own infrastructure tokens is conditioned by the need to create an internal economy in the ecosystem that will establish transparent and fair relations among all participants making up the system: forecasters/analysts, traders, financial investors, data scientists, and the Cindicator team. What the name of the token? Can I mine Cindicator tokens? The token is also called Cindicator (CND). Unlike proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin, there is no mining in Cindicator. What are Cindicator tokens? Cindicator tokens are ERC-20 compatible tokens distributed on the Ethereum blockchain pursuant to a related ERC-20 smart contract (the “CND Tokens”). How can I participate in Cindicator Token distribution? To participate in Cindicator Token distribution, you will need any Ethereum compatible wallet or an application where you and only you hold the private keys. Private keys are needed to correctly interact with smart contract functions, like transferring cryptographic tokens. Do not send ether (“ETH”) directly from cryptocurrency exchanges, only an ETH compatible wallet. Is there a pre-sale? Yes, we are working on the White list now and will announce the terms of presale by the end of August. You can subscribe to our newsletter to receive the information about pre-sale first. What purchase methods will be accepted during the token sale? BTC, ETH. During the White List Stage it is only ETH. Is there a minimum purchase for Cindicator Tokens during the token sale? The minimum contribution accepted during CND token sale is 0.0005 BTC or 0.01 ETH. Smaller contribution amounts will be rejected. Why people from PRC, Singapore and USA are not allowed to buy Cindicator tokens? Due to legal reasons we can’t offer CND tokens for citizens and permanent residents of Singapore; citizens, permanent residents and owners of primary residence or domicile in the United States of America (including Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands or any other U.S. possessions); Citizens and permanent residents of the People's Republic of China are also excluded from our Token Sale and can not buy our tokens. If your signals are so valuable, why wouldn’t you use them only for yourself for trading? The answer is that simple: we are a technological company and specialize in the Hybrid Intelligence technologies. We create infrastructure and products based on it, and those products, infrastructure and data they yield can be used by hedge-funds or other companies with financial expertise. This way it’s a mutually beneficial business. We don't want to try entering completely different field of the big finance. In other words, the same question can be addressed to the Bloomberg, for example. To be exactly accurate - we do use our signals for our own good - but this is a very small part of Cindicator business model. Which products can I access as a Token holder? By buying tokens, CND token holders will get exclusive access to part of the Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure being developed. Holders of CND infrastructure tokens will receive a different level of access to Cindicator’s indicators, ratings, and internal analytical products. Token holders will be able to access the following parts of the infrastructure: indicators of traditional markets and crypto-markets (the probability of the rise or fall of asset prices, the probability of beating consensus in corporate and macroeconomic events, indicators certain price levels being reached, and indicators of the probability of significant events influencing the market); auxiliary service products for trading (Telegram and Slack bots, notifiers, and portfolio monitoring products); analytical products (ICO ratings, market condition analysis, ICO due diligence, and investor portfolio analysis); market indices and sentiments generated by Hybrid Intelligence. Will your signals still provide value if many people can gain access to them? The fact that token holders can use data from the analytical infrastructure products will not affect the value of the data received from Hybrid Intelligence, since each indicator or index is not an unambiguous trading signal, but only an additional metric in the market that helps analyse an investment decision. These data and analytical products will assist token holders and make the ecosystem transparent. A part of the infrastructure intended to be directly used in capital management (by traders' teams, machine-learning models, and trading strategies) will remain in the centralized part of the system. This is necessary in order to make sure that Hybrid Intelligence can be used most efficiently on the next stage, when interested funds will be provided with access to the entire infrastructure (for more detailed information, please, see White Paper Section 4.6). Cindicator - just another Prediction Market? Cindicator is not a prediction market. We are different in infrastructure, goals and business model: We enhance collective intelligence of our forecasters with Artificial Intelligence. Prediction markets usually just gather opinions. We aim at creating Hybrid intelligence - an effective combination of human mind and machine intelligence. Prediction markets aim at making correct predictions. We create products for financial markets: not only forecasts and signals, but also strategies, indices, sentiments, trading bots and tools, SaaS products. Thus our clients and source of income are financial markets’ players. Prediction markets focus on predictions - and for many of them analytics are important part of cash inflow. We on the other hand have never made or plan to make our forecasters risk their own money. Is Cindicator just another trading signal provider? No, Cindicator is a technological ecosystem that also creates a number of products for traders and hedge funds. Cindicator’s ultimate goal is to set up a decentralized intellectual technology that effectively implements the potential of Hybrid Intelligence for the benefit of all participants of the ecosystem. In the future the technology strives to be fully automated: the only resource necessary for it to function will be the mental investment by the analysts. Is the crowd able to give reliable predictions? Usually we don’t expect crowd to be wise. However, crowd doesn’t necessarily mean chaotic and impulsive mass. In case of Cindicator, “the crowd” consists of independent financial analysts from all corners of the Earth. We could call it a consensus - yet the word we use refers to a well-known concept called “Wisdom of the crowds”. A famous example: in 1906, British scientist Francis Galton came to a rural fair where visitors were invited to guess the weight of a bull put on public display and to write this figure on a special ticket just for entertainment. Organizers of that show promised prizes for those who managed to guess a true figure. Thus, about 800 people - some of them professional farmers, others far from pastoral matters - took part in the voting. After collecting all the tickets for analysis after the fair, Galton calculated the average arithmetic value from the entire sample: 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the bull was 1198 pounds. Astonishing result, isn’t it? In order to make “Wisdom of the crowds” work, a few things must be secured: Analytics must look at the situation independently and provide answer privately - because otherwise they risk to become influenced by some opinion and produce biased results Group of people must be large. The more people - the more accurate their consensus is. Questions must be formulated in quantitative way. Watch a 5-mins video where BBC's professor Marcus du Sautoy explains how a group of people know more than one individual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU Have you acquired investments already? Cindicator has already acquired around $570,000 of investments from angels and venture funds. We also got $140,000 worth grants for technologies from Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon. How experienced your team is? The Cindicator team has been created by a synergy of like-minded people with a variety of expertise in maths, data science and finances working together with one collective mind. About 85% of the team members are graduates of top STEM universities We understand the value of building the right Team, Community, and Ecosystem. We are actively expanding the scientific community around our infrastructure, business and ecosystem giving access to our work and technologies so we can act together to solve important and relevant problems. Cindicator have a strong advisory board: Charlie Shrem - Chief Operating Officer at Jaxx.io, Founder of Bitcoin Foundation Anthony Diiorio - CEO and Founder at Decentral and Jaxx, Founder at Ethereum Reese Jones - Associate Founder at Singularity University Etienne Brunet - Investment Executive at Illuminate Financial Simone Giacomelli - Founder at Vulpem Stepan Gershuni - General partner at bits.capital Anton Govor - Managing Director, Head of Strategy at Moscow Exchange Andrei Rusakov - Partner, co-founder at Data Capital Management Julian Zegelman - Corporate Attorney, Partner at Velton, Zegelman PC Roman Storm - Blockchain and Solidity developer at blockchainlabs.nz What does Cindicator stand for? Crowd Indicator: we refer to the famous “Wisdom of the crowds” concept. In a nutshell: it means that group of people is more likely to provide right answer than an individual. Hence, crowd indicator - an indicator of collective intelligence.
The worlds most prolific crypto-currency expert isn’t very smart. He overcomes below-average intelligence with speed, specialization, tireless work ethics, and an uncanny ability to learn. Borrowing a lesson from Wall Street, he doesn’t use his own money — he doesn’t even trade. He uses a time-honored formula to get rich in a gold rush: don’t search for gold — sell picks and shovels to miners. And he’s mercenarial: anyone with .028 Bitcoins a month (today about $300) can hire him. Although he saves his best stuff for those who’ll pay 3 times that. Meet Haasbot who, along with his brethren bots, is collectively responsible for the bulk of global cryptocurrency trading. Nobody knows for sure how much. Forbes estimated 80%. Bots also dominate equity trading — that’s harder to gauge given Wall Street’s penchant for secrecy and the relatively closed environment of traditional exchanges. As noted, bots aren’t particularly smart — they’re the computer equivalent of manual labor. Which is still incredibly valuable. Quoting Judge Smails in Caddysack: “the world needs ditch diggers, too.” Factory robots — neither smart, innovative nor charming — have all but replaced humans because of speed, cost-effectiveness, unwavering precision and persistence. The same qualities Haasbots bring to crypto trading. Factory robots and Haasbots perform Robotic Process Automation (RPA), a slice of the unfolding-in-front-of-our-eyes Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Coined in 2011, Salesforce.com recently adopted 4IR to label the massive technological change we’re experiencing. Whatever 2.0 (or 3.0), pivot, game changer, seismic shift — they’re all trite and understate what’s happening. 4IR is so momentous that the World Economic Forum describes it as “a fundamental change in the way we live, work and relate to one another. It is a new chapter in human development, enabled by extraordinary technology advances commensurate with those of the first, second and third industrial revolutions.” ¹ 4IR Summarized — From IBM’s Cognitive Computing Blog Bots aren’t new — they’ve been around for decades, and earned a decidedly poor reputation by serving as henchmen for shady programmers. In fact, while acknowledging they can be benign, Cisco groups bots under malware along with viruses, worms, and Trojans. Bots don’t deserve this bad rap. They’ve just been following orders (unlike humans they have no choice). Now, machine learning allows bots to teach themselves via trial and error — at blistering speed. They‘re still bound to follow orders, which is a good thing. IBM’s Adam Cutler says todays’ “smartest” AI has an IQ of 47. An Imbecile (by traditional classifications) — who not long ago was an Idiot, and will soon progress to a Moron. So computers aren’t yet scary smart. But, without humans holding them back, they learn scary fast. When converted to machine-learning, Google Translate improved about as much overnight as the old version had in a decade. Each day it translates 150 Billion words as accurately as a human — who can translate, on average, 450. We’re still a ways away from C3P0, HAL 9000, or even Siri making doctors appointments. Who knows how far — Elon Musk says “double exponential change” will consistently beat predictions. For now, AI is micro-specialized— essentially bots are machine-based idiot savants. Google Translate just…..translates. Haasbots are, as Alton Brown would say, uni-taskers. Trading cryptos requires a specialized team: · Trade Bot · Accumulation Bot · Order Bot · Ping Pong Bot · Scalper Bot · Trend Lines Bot · Intelli Bot Alice · Mad Hatter Bot · Inter-Exchange Arbitrage Bot · Market Making Bot · Flash Crash Bot · Zone Recovery Bot These bots execute trades like pump and dump (not the illegal combination — only the logic to follow each side). The ‘Trump and Dump” bot (by another firm) is more specialized: it analyzes our erratic Chief Executives Twitter feed for public company mentions with negative sentiment, and then shorts their stock. Google, whose CEO said “AI is probably the most important thing humanity has ever worked on. I think of it as something more profound than electricity or fire” is in an AI arms race with IBM, Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Baidu. Yet the most useful AI capability I’ve seen so far comes from Salesforce.com. By the scale of the FAANGs Salesforce is a nit — not quite $10 Billion in revenue, only 150,000 customers. But they’re the center of a $250+ billion ecosystem, and growing like mad. Their Einstein AI suite directly impacts the lives of millions of salespeople, along with hundreds of millions of Salesforce’s customers customers. Since AI is expected to eliminate millions of jobs, announcing “we’re implementing AI to help with your job” is akin to saying “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Yet Einstein actually does help, at least in his RPA role, serving as a salespersons best friend: the secretary. Secretaries, eg administrative assistants, are the unsung heroes of sales. Comparing low and high-performing sales teams, McKinsey says the best ones (based on ROI) devote over twice the staff to sales operations and admin: under 1:4 versus over 1:8. Quoting their study: “Sales operations and administrative support are sometimes a victim of overly aspirational cost-saving efforts. Yet they are invaluable because they enable frontline and pre-sales employees to spend more time with customers and to focus on sales and growth.” ² Invaluable, indeed — but they’ve been disappearing. Saddled with admin and many other new tasks, it’s not surprising that a 2015 Insidesales.com study reported that salespeople spend only a third of their time selling. Like all survey-based studies, it’s susceptible to the Margaret Mead factor — “what people say, what people do, and what they say they do are entirely different things.” To overcome this inaccuracy, Pace Productivity directly instruments salespeople with stopwatch-like gadgets that precisely monitor their time. Based on their 2017 results (shown below), a salesperson who manages to spend 33% of their time selling should be thrilled: Read more ¹ World Economic Forumhttps://toplink.weforum.org/knowledge/insight/a1Gb0000001RIhBEAW/explore/summary ² In the Best Sales Teams, About Half of the People Are in Support Roles ³ http://erichorvitz.com/CHI_2007_Iqbal_Horvitz.pdf?ranmid=24542&raneaid=tnl5hpstwnw&ransiteid=tnl5hpstwnw-nzuavbehsh2sfryruyeetg&tduid=(32dd2b1f512e7aab1840c0f7d245b64e)(256380)(2459594)(tnl5hpstwnw-nzuavbehsh2sfryruyeetg)()
COIN SPECIFICATION *Coin Name: Coinholic *Coin Code: COH *Total Supply: 15 Million *ICO Supply: 9 Million *Pre-ICO: March 7 — March 13 / $0.3 per COH Token / 1.5 Million Tokens to be Sold *ICO Stage 1: March 14 — March 28 /$0.7 per COH Token / 3 Million Tokens to be Sold *ICO Stage 2: March 29 — April 14 / $0.9 per COH Token / 4.5 Million Tokens to be Sold *Hard Cap: $6.6 Million *Soft Cap: $800K *Minimum Purchase: 50 COH Tokens *Maximum Purchase: 20,000 COH Tokens *Project Protocol: ERC20 *Payment Methods: We accept Bitcoin and Ethereum *See Contract Address on Etherscan *See Source Code on GitHub Coinholic is a Global Payment Option for The Digital Asset Market. Coinholic is designed with the digital asset sector at heart. The digital economy is a fast growing one, and we are offering users the opportunity to benefit from this sector with the help of our online platform. The Coinholic marketplace allows owners of digital assets to sell their products to consumers and get paid in a globally acceptable cryptocurrency which serves as the only medium of payment on the platform. Users will have access to exclusive digital assets. The whole process is triggered by our smart contract that executes actions when certain conditions are met. Sellers will have to list and upload their products with detailed description, and place a price tag on them. These products will be held and listed in the public file manager where every buyer can see them and view the product descriptions. However, the download links will not be available to buyers until the buyers pay the exact amount of the product (in COH) to the seller’s wallet generated. When the payment is confirmed on the blockchain, the product automatically becomes available for download to the buyer who made the deposit. Confirmation on the blockchain is speedy. The four categories of digital assets that Coinholic operates includes Digital Courses, Cryptocurrencies, Software, and Designs/Arts DIGITAL COURSES ELearning is an untapped fast growing industry which is one of the reasons why LinkedIn acquired the popular Lynda.com for $1.5 Billion in 2015. With technology, people can now enjoy easy access to informational materials in digital formats such as videos, podcasts, and ebooks. Teachers and other owners of these assets can take advantage of the opportunity that our platform offers to showcase their digital courses to the world when they sign up on our marketplace and get their products listed. Users of the platform will also enjoy access to these exclusive digital courses. We seek to contribute to the eLearning revolution and make it easy for everyone to have access to quality informational materials irrespective of location or language. CRYPTOCURRENCIES One of the problems of the cryptocurrency community is converting digital currencies to fiat. This option is not yet available in some countries. Cryptocurrency has not been widely accepted as a medium of payment. There is still need for Bitcoin and altcoins to be converted to fiat to enhance commerce possible in some locations. Coinholic allows users convert Bitcoins and altcoins for local fiat currency. The service will be available to over 50 countries. To use the service, users will need to register on our partner exchanges, purchase Coinholic with Bitcoin or any altcoin, and send the fund to their web wallet on the Coinholic platform. All users are allowed to create Coinholic web wallets on the platform upon registration. Finally, users are required to submit requests to convert the COH in their wallet to fiat. The conversion will be carried out by the Coinholic system, and the funds are withdrawable to the local bank accounts of our users after conversion. SOFTWARES Around September 2017, the Software industry crossed $1 Trillion. The industry is a lucrative one as a result of the fact that software is high in demand. Software’s proffer solution to a whole lot of real-life problems and plays a huge role in the running of our day to day businesses. In recent times, there have been a lot of talented software developers who have found lots of useful software’s but couldn’t earn a living off their hard work since they lack the knowledge of digital marketing. If those software’s are placed on the market, they will be beneficial to the public. Thus, our digital asset marketplace will enable such developers to make money from their products while making the society a better place with the aid of their quality innovations. DESIGNS & ARTS Users of our marketplace will enjoy access to high-quality designs and exclusive illustrations that can be used for personal and commercial projects. We are making our platform available to talented graphic designers and giving them to the opportunity to earn from the products that will be listed on the marketplace. Such products could include PSD and Vector versions of logos, banners, artworks, etc. Users can modify and utilize these designs for commercial purposes. COINHOLIC FEATURES Security We guarantee your safety when using the Coinholic marketplace. Security is a crucial area of our product that requires special attention. Therefore, we have a competent security team that always runs updates on our system to ensure that our platform users are safe from hackers and any other form of attack that we could meet in the future. Two-Factor Authentication (2FA) The Coinholic platform uses 2FA to ensure users security while logging in, making withdrawals, and editing some sections on the profile related to payments. Email Confirmation In the event that 2FA isn’t enabled, users will have to go through email confirmation process for protection against unauthorized activities on accounts. Whitelist IPs Most platforms do not use this option, but we decided to adopt this method to ensure the safety of our users. Whitelisting IPs is a security measure that allows users set IPs that will be granted access to their accounts. All sign in and withdrawal attempts from IPs different from the selected IPs will be blocked until after verification from users. Smart Contract Our blockchain’s smart contract triggers the process of trading digital assets on the Coinholic platform. Apart from cryptocurrency to fiat conversion, trading in every other category is fully decentralized. Sellers will have to upload their products and place a price tag on them. These products will be held in the public file manager where every buyer can see them and view the product descriptions. However, the download links will not be available to buyers until a certain amount of COH is received and confirmed in the seller’s wallet from a buyer. When that happens, the product automatically becomes available for download to the buyer who made the deposit. Portfolio Management Since our platform allows the trading of different forms of digital assets, managing all these assets could be a hassle for our users. Thus, we have the portfolio management feature that enables users to manage all the assets that have been purchased in the Coinholic marketplace. Products Review & Rating Buyers who have purchased specific products in the marketplace (e.g., digital courses and software) are allowed to rate the quality of the product bought. Rating products help us separate bad or low-quality products from the good ones. The reviews on a product give buyers the sense of choice of whether to purchase a particular product or not. Mass Adoption We are confident our system will be adopted massively. A lot of product owners have been looking for an opportunity like this to get their products showcased globally. The cost of selling digital products is unaffordable by most product owners coupled with the fact that a lot of such category of people lack digital marketing techniques. We believe that in few years to come, the Coinholic marketplace will be adopted tremendously, being the first online marketplace where digital assets will be traded with cryptocurrency as the only payment option. We also have a simple adoption strategy of entering the market as a free platform for everyone and work to register as many free accounts as possible while attracting sellers to handle their trading activities through the system. We will ensure users spend time learning the platform and how it works via series of video training. As the member base grows, Coinholic will attract more digital asset sellers while buyers will flock to the platform to make purchases. Rapid Increase in Price The basis of demand and supply is what controls the growth of cryptocurrencies. The higher the demand for a coin, the higher the value increases. Our team strives to create a massive demand for our crypto by making Coinholic crypto the only acceptable payment option on the marketplace. Users of the platform will have to obtain Coinholic crypto from the exchanges before they can make purchases on the market. If a user wants to exchange any other coin for fiat using our platform, such user will have to convert the coin in question to Coinholic before he or she can sell on our platform. We rolled out the system to enable us to create a massive demand for our coin. With the above strategies coupled with the fact that we have a total supply of only 15 million coins, we are positive that Coinholic will record a rapid increase in price when we hit the exchanges. SELF-MANAGED ARBITRAGE TRADING PROGRAM We seek to fetch enough returns for our early investors which is why we have adopted our initial arbitrage trading system as part of a means to reward our investors. During the period of our crypto trading service, we generated massive profit for our clients on monthly basis. We are giving our early investors the chance to benefit from the program. This time, we will not be doing the trading. The whole process will be self-managed by users. You trade at your own pace and choose what amount you wish to trade with. We do not control your activities, we only provide trading signals and guidance. Coinholic team comprises of expert crypto traders who have made so much income through arbitrage. In cryptocurrency, arbitrage is a system of buying and selling digital currencies in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of the difference in prices for the same asset. We do not use a trading bot or anything of that form, all trading activities will be carried out manually by investors. All you have to do is use the information we provide on your dashboard to complete your trades. Our signals are 90% correct. However, the program will only last for one year. This is to enable us to focus more on our core project and develop the Coinholic ecosystem. We cannot give a figure showing the amount of ROI you should expect, what we do guarantee is that investors will record a reasonable amount of profit if our instruction is adhered to. The program will be launched by June 2018 and end by July 2019. In other words, only investors who participate in our token sale are allowed to benefit from the self-managed trading program. Once the platform is launched, investors who wish to participate in the program can sign into the platform using the same login information generated during ICO. You don’t have to do a new registration. Although we state that our signals are 90% correct, we hope you understand that there are uncertainties in crypto trading. Sometimes, we may not always get the result we expect. We are not making any profits from the self-managed program, we only rolled out this platform to reward our early investors and make them feel excited about their investments. Please note that we will not be held liable for any trade done without the guidance of the information we provide on users’ dashboard. COINHOLIC ICO The Coinholic project will be sponsored via a token sale that will run from March 7 to April 14 ICO (Initial Coin Offering) is a system that allows Coinholic to raise funds needed to execute our planned activities. The Coinholic platform is undergoing development; however, we need funds to sponsor the advancement of the core functions of our platform, and also help in marketing our project. We need to get Coinholic to the crypto community in order to make our project a successful one. Investors who choose to support our project will make a considerable profit in no distant time. We are offering investors the chance to acquire Coinholic tokens at low costs ranging from $0.3 to $0.9. The value of Coinholic will be a lot higher than that when we finally hit the public exchanges. We also intend on having well structure bonuses and incentives for early investors through our bounty programs. These investors will be rewarded with bonuses and will be offered incredible deals for being the first set of people that invest in Coinholic. Such deal includes the launching of our self-managed trading program. We are doing this so that investors will see benefits in being the first to adopt this technology. By doing this, we are confident of having a successful launch in which we can create revenue to develop our project further and to grow our system to the next phase of Coinholic. Token distribution There will be a total of 15 million coins in the Coinholic network, but only 9 million tokens will be available for sale during ICO. The illustration below shows how Coinholic token will be distributed The purpose of the Coinholic token allocation is to ensure the long-term sustainability of our marketplace and crypto coin. 60% of the total supply will be giving out to early investors through our token sale. 30% of the token will be left in reserve. Part of this reserve will be released to exchanges and intensify trade in our marketplace while the balance will remain in reserve to aid the stability of the value of Coinholic. Unsold tokens after ICO will be moved to the reserve. Tokens allocated to founders and developers will be held for some time before they can be sold. Here is a picture of the lock period: 1 year 100% 2 years 75% 3 years 50% 4 years 25% 5 years 0% With these policies, we are sure of maintaining the integrity and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the platform. COINHOLIC AIRDROP 10 COH tokens will be awarded to 10,000 participants each. To participate in the Coinholic airdrop and get the free 10 COH tokens, please click HERE
Bitcoin Jumps to Three-Month High as Yuan Weakness Fuels Buying
This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 48%.
Bitcoin rose to an almost three-month high amid a surge in volume as the yuan extended a six-year low, bolstering Chinese demand for alternative assets. Trading volume climbed to an almost seven-month high of 5.5 million bitcoin on Sunday, data on Bitcoinity.org showed. "As the yuan enters a path of depreciation, investors will consider investing in assets that can preserve value and hedge risks," said Zhu Jiawei, Beijing-based chief operating officer at Huobi, one of the largest Chinese bitcoin exchanges. Bitcoin skyrocketed 80 percent from the end of 2015 to reach a 2 1/2-year high of $777.01 on June 17 amid faster yuan declines and expectations for a fall in bitcoin supply in July. Bitcoin was trading at 4,488.6 yuan on Monday on Huobi, amounting to a premium of about 2 percent compared with its dollar price. The gap may widen further as stricter capital controls have made it harder for traders to arbitrage the difference, said Arthur Hayes, Hong Kong-based founder of bitcoin exchange BitMEX. He expects bitcoin to strengthen to $1,000 by January as the yuan falls to 7 against the greenback, he said.
Croatia has no jurisdiction inside of Liberland. Liberland is provable not a part of Croatia - even by their own admission. Croatia has no right to prevent access to Liberland from international waters in the Danube - nor does it have the right to abduct our citizens from either Liberland or international waters.
By paying for it, from money we have or earn - same as everyone else. We just pay privately, cutting our the expensive government middle man. We've already made fully funded plans for airstrip (Liberland International) and basic roads and sewage.
Well - I personally do financial services. Others are software developers. Others again are artists. So - its going to be diverse, like any other nation, but very service oriented, as we do not have much land or natural resources.
Well - naturally aggression against others and their property!
Furthermore (and here we have a touchy subject) we have chosen to adapt a "minimum international treaties package approach" in order to get recognition, and this package includes select Geneva/UN & EFTA treaties, which do include some anti-libertarian commitments.
Thus one cannot readily expect to see a completely anarcho-capitalist society built completely on voluntarist principles. But we will get as close as possible to this, while still obtaining international recognition for our new nation.
A great many things which is regulated or outright illegal in most of the world, will be perfectly legal in Liberland - and the red tape will be almost absent.
For more than 25 years, the land on which Liberland is founded, has been completely unclaimed. Well - until recently that is, as we now claim it, in full compliance with common & int law.
Croatia still does not claim the land - and if they did, they would be 2nd claimant, not first. And seriously - why would they want a swamp, when they could get a European Singapore. Liberland alone would mean a full 1 pct in GNP growth for Croatia and Serbia alike.
An unowned piece of land - A polulation - A permanent settlement - The capability to engage in international relations - Accept a minimum of treaties between the countries on the "nice boys club" such as the Geneva conventions etc.
It's an understandably common question. I like to take a few steps backward on it. First to say that ALL currencies ultimately derive their value from a shared community view that the currency in question represents a token of value that all agree on and that it is widely accepted. Bitcoin has some ways to go in that regard. But it is no different from other currencies in that it has no intrinsic value -- the idea of a currency's intrinsic (or commodity) value, even for gold, is a myth in our mind. But the next point is what are the kinds of things that lead communities to come to such conclusions about a currency. And that comes down to trust. In the case of gold-back, it's that people trusted that the gold behind it would retain its value because that commodity happened to have some good qualities as a currency: durability, divisibility, fungibility, transportability, et. In the case of fiat money, the trust lay in the idea that the government would stand behind it. And while that's in itself a flimsy notion -- what can a government back a fiat currency with other than currency itself? - it is still a worthwhile basis for trust because a trusted functioning government is one that successfully collects taxes. And it can promise to honor taxes in its currency. So what about bitcoin? Here, the trust (and therefore the value) comes down to math. You trust that that mathematical algorithm behind it is irrefutable, more trustworthy than a human. And it's also secure: the bitcoin algroithm, decentralized and distributed as it is, can't be hacked, and there is so much money invested in the mining hardware that runs that system that's difficult anyone to take it over. (That's akin to the infrastructure that a government brings to the table, though much less.) Finally, there's the fact that bitcoin is simpy incredibly useful. Far more effectively than dollars and gold you can send it anywhere, cheaply, without a fee-taking middleman. It makes digital commerce so much more effective and efficient than non-digital currencies. All of that goes into the mix that gives bitcoin its value.
At this stage, bitcoin is far and away the biggest, most widely held and most valuable cryptocurrency. But relative to the dollar, euro or yen it is tiny (when measured in transactions). So one could imagine, perhaps, a big, monied interest creating an alternative - a government, perhaps, or a consortium of banks - to compete with it. Would such an offering win people's trust, however? Who knows. The other question, though, is whether the blockchain technology of a different "altcoin" could challenge bitcoin in building all the payment infrastructure and non-currency applications for transferring value that many investors foresee. There are projects such as Ethereum that are interesting in that regard. And, of course, Ripple Labs' payment system -- which is effectively a cryptocurrency system for banks and other institutions to use to move money and value around the world among themselves -- is making good headway in signing on partners. In that sense, Ripple is a decent competitor to bitcoin for that internal payment infrastructure role.
Huge potential. Starting point: $80 trillion global economy. If you just save 3% in fees on that, you start with $2.4 trillion in savings. That's about 16 times the total global development aid budget alone. But of course, the savings on remittances and the many hidden fees are even bigger. You do away with cash, you save on massive security costs. If you remove escrow agents, trustees, stock exchanges, lawyers and other intermediaries who simply play gatekeeper roles in global finance, you get even bigger savings. And what happens if we integrate 2.5 billion "unbanked" into the global economy? You think the integration of China into that economy was big. This could be even bigger. It could spur a whole new wave of decentralization in supply chains. And to your straightforward but vital point: speed is critical. As the old adage says, time is money. If we can clear and settle money without two-day time lags, that frees up trillions of dollars in capital that can be re-deployed. The global economic implications are indeed profound. Hence the subtitle to our book.
It seems that low-hanging fruit is in the wallet and exchange businesses, because these are the basis infrastructure of a functioning digital currency ecosystem. You need those tools to make it function. But Holy Grail for now seems to be in developing apps that make international remittances feasible. The savings for immigrants and their back-home families from digital currency transfers could be significant. Other cool things being built on the blockchain: copyright certification tools, database management, decentralized memory sharing, decentralized Uber-like ride-sharing, crypto stock exchanges... a long list. All these in some way are challenging the various institutions that sit in the middle of global commerce.
There are all sorts of ways to attack this problem. One is "simply" to build out more robust, better secured and regulated trading infrastructure, so that institutions and other investor enter the market and add liquidity. Exchanges, hedging instruments, ETFs, etc. All these are coming. A deeper, more stable market will allow the price to cool down. Then there are various asset tokens built on the blockchain that literally peg an IOU to the dollar or some other more stable asset such as gold. These are worthless unless the issuer is fully backed by a reserve of those assets. But some are offering that and the cool thing is the the public ledger technology behind the Blockchain allows people to audit those reserves in real time.
I've never been one to want to label myself -- a classic journalist's trait. But I do think technology has always been a driver of progress and that the human condition itself has improved as a result of it. Through history, technology has led to better and more sophisticated societies -- money itself is one of those great innovations to achieve this. Those democratized, integrated societies have resulted in less violence, longer life expectancy, healthier people, greater prosperity. Decentralized technologies like cryptocurrencies have the capacity to continue that. Does that make me a transhumanist? I have no idea.
Yes, there's a lot of speculation, and not all of it is healthy. We still have very underdeveloped, underregulated exchanges. And the advent of speculative trading tools and margin trading has allowed big players, particularly in China, to manipulate the price and take advantage of arbitrage opportunities across the world. More stable, robust, regulated and institutional investor-friendly exchanges and investment vehicles will go some way to resolving this problem.
It depends on what you define as the world. I think bitcoin, or at least some decent cryptocurrency clone, will take over the world of financial payments and value exchanges. It will work in the background, just as the Internet does. Will it take over the dollar? That's more of an open question.
I really don't know. You're right in that the market cap needs to be much higher eventually. That will give it more security and guarantee its independence, but as for a precise number, it's hard to say. Also, though, it's chicken and egg --and circular. The wider the adoption of bitcoin, the more its overall value rises, the more secure and viable it becomes for further adoption.
Who knows? It needs to me more than just another merchant accepting it -- we already have Microsoft accepting it -- but in having some institution actually use it for their own financial management: a big U.S. bank, for example. Not something on the immediate horizon. But if and when that happens... it will matter.
Sorry. That's a question for Overstock and for the publishers. But the short answer, I imagine, is that Overstock -- unlike Amazon's Kindle or Barnes and Noble's Nook format -- doesn't (yet?) have an e-book platform. A pity.. (We need to get Amazon to accept bitcoin, of course. That's the real solution.)
Go to school. Study economics. ... Oh, and read The Wall Street Journal! As for cryptocurrencies, all I'll say is that there's a huge opportunity for a field of crypto-economics to develop. Intrigued economist should love this stuff, with its ready-made trove of data to collate and study.
How to Earn Bitcoin Through Arbitrage Software (AKA a bot) ... 2015 · Should we update, amend or make any changes to this document, those changes will be prominently posted here. Popular. How I save 30% buying gold and the 4 steps to selling the gold to earn 9% profit. READ POST. Recent Posts. Understanding Bitcoin Wallets ; Magnr Review: A Bitcoin Savings Account; Buying Bitcoins: A Step-by ... Mark January 5, 2015. What is Bitcoin arbitrage? Basically, Bitcoin arbitrage is the act of buying Bitcoin at an exchange where the price is very low and selling it at a different exchange where ... I decided to give this C++ Arbitrage bot a little go ahead because I’m interested in C++ and ultimately bitcoin development overall. Blackbird is the name of the software and it is available on Github. I found it easy to use and implement. There were very few dependencies but those are simply a matter of following the instructions. Unlike other Bitcoin arbitrage systems, Blackbird doesn't sell but actually short sells Bitcoin on the short exchange. The problem is only Bitfinex allows short selling. So, the example is an excellent case of cherry picking. There are other issues with their strategy too. Bitcoin Arbitrage and Trading Robots (Open Source) Jack Huang Bitcoin Sunday November 8th, 2015 23:33 Arbitrage, Bitcoin, Trading Bot 1 Comment Name: Blackbird
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